With the baseball calendar flipping from April to May next week, all 30 teams have reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic for the short and long term. The best teams in the sport — from the Dodgers to the Padres to the Yankees and Mets — are off to strong starts while the worst teams in MLB, the Rockies and White Sox, are proving they’re as bad as many thought they’d be.
No matter where your team stands through the first five weeks of the season, there are signs of hope and concern. Here is at least one reason for optimism and pessimism for every team.
All stats are updated through Wednesday’s games unless otherwise noted.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Reason for optimism: After a slow start, the Braves’ lineup looks like it could get back to its lethal form of two years ago. Ronald Acuña Jr. appears to be making progress in rehabbing from his latest knee surgery and should be returning to the active roster sometime in early May. Austin Riley and Matt Olson are primed for bounce-back seasons on the hot corners while Marcell Ozuna continues to be one of the most effective and consistent DHs in the sport.
Reason for pessimism: The losses of Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency combined with the early season surgery for Reynaldo López has left the Braves with several rotation questions to answer if they want to make it back to the postseason. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale has posted a 6.17 ERA over his first five outings and staff ace Spencer Strider is back on the injured list with a hamstring strain after making just one start. Spencer Schwellenbach (2.56 ERA) has been their only solid starter in the early going.
Miami Marlins
Reason for optimism: The Marlins may have found their new ace in Max Meyer, a former first-round pick who is finally healthy and finding control and command of his arsenal, which has resulted in a dominant start to the year (2.10 ERA in five outings with 41 strikeouts over 30 innings).
Reason for pessimism: The Marlins expected Sandy Alcantara would return to his former Cy Young Award-winning self and give them the most coveted trade target at this year’s deadline. Alcantara, who is under team control through 2027, gives Miami a potential blockbuster trade chip. However, thus far he’s provided healthy but uneven production, not the dominant performance needed to trade him for a haul of prospects. Alcantara has posted a 6.56 ERA over five starts with 12 walks and 17 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings.
New York Mets
Reason for optimism: The Mets have the best record in baseball and lead the majors with a team ERA of 2.34. Kodai Senga is pitching like an ace, Clay Holmes has been spectacular early in his transition from reliever to starter, Tylor Megill has impressed with a 1.09 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings, and closer Edwin Díaz has converted all six of his save opportunities. We all knew the Mets would have one of the best offenses in the league, but the pitching staff (without Sean Manaea) is showing they’re a serious World Series contender. In addition, the Mets have put together one of the best analytics departments in the sport.
Reason for pessimism: The bottom half of the Mets’ lineup is showing signs of underachievement as third baseman Mark Vientos is off to a slow start and 36-year-old Starling Marte is showing signs of further decline. However, they just activated catcher Francisco Alvarez (hamate bone surgery) and Jeff McNeil (oblique strain) from the injured list.
Philadelphia Phillies
Reason for optimism: Jesús Luzardo has given the Phillies another front-line starter and arguably the best and deepest rotation in the division. Luzardo has impressed early in his Philly career, logging a 2.08 ERA over five starts with 36 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings. The rotation is led by Zack Wheeler, a two-time second-place finisher in the NL Cy Young voting who is my pick to win the award this year, followed by the emerging Cristopher Sánchez and Luzardo to form a dominant top trio. In addition, Andrew Painter, the best pitching prospect in the National League, should be ready to contribute sometime this summer.
Reason for pessimism: The Phillies need to improve their bullpen between now and the trade deadline. Offseason acquisition Jordan Romano is off to a slow start, posting a 13.50 ERA over 11 appearances. Their pen is solid from the left side with José Alvarado (2.13 ERA, 5-for-5 on save opportunities), Matt Strahm (1.59 ERA), and Tanner Banks (3.38 ERA), who gives the Phillies a third southpaw option. However, they’ll need to acquire a strong right-handed reliever to improve their chances of making another World Series appearance. Meanwhile, starter Aaron Nola has struggled early, going 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.607 WHIP.
Washington Nationals
Reason for optimism: James Wood is developing into a superstar-caliber player. He has smashed eight home runs with 18 RBIs in his first 25 games while slugging .559.
Reason for pessimism: Dylan Crews, my preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year, is off to a bad start, slashing .188/.217/.313 with just four extra-base hits in 80 at-bats. This follows the end of his 2024 season in which he hit .218 with three homers in 31 games with the Nationals.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Reason for optimism: The offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker has completely changed the complexion of the Cubs’ offense, which leads the majors in runs scored, OPS and stolen bases. They have six hitters with four to seven homers (Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson), signifying the length of their lineup. They have four players with six to 10 steals (Crow-Armstrong, Jon Berti, Tucker and Nico Hoerner). They also have the best outfield defense in the league with Tucker, Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ all playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Reason for pessimism: The Cubs have already lost their second-best starting pitcher, Justin Steele, to season-ending surgery. Steele had posted a 3.09 ERA over 82 starts since 2022.
Cincinnati Reds
Reason for optimism: The Reds have put together arguably the best rotation in the NL Central, led by Hunter Greene, who is pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate, and followed by two rapidly developing starters in Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. Lodolo has a 2.79 ERA over five starts; Abbott has a 1.64 ERA in two starts. In addition, the Reds’ offseason acquisition of Brady Singer is already making an impact as he’s logging bulk innings while going 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over four starts.
Reason for pessimism: The Reds have a strong team up the middle with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Matt McLain at second base, TJ Friedl in center field and Jose Trevino behind the plate. However, the infield and outfield corners are big question marks, as many of us thought they would be in the offseason and during spring training; those four positions will determine whether the Reds can stay in the NL Central race all season.
Milwaukee Brewers
Reason for optimism: Speed and defense. The Brewers are second in the majors in steals with 36, led by Brice Turang (eight) and Sal Frelick (seven). In terms of defense, Milwaukee ranks sixth in the NL in team defense according to FanGraphs, behind the Cardinals, Braves, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Reds.
Reason for pessimism: The Brewers have the speed, but they lack the slug needed to compete with the Cubs at the top of the division. In fact, Milwaukee ranks 23rd in slugging percentage in MLB with a dismal .377 mark. They clearly miss their former shortstop and team leader, Willy Adames, both on and off the field.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Reason for optimism: Paul Skenes has continued his early-career dominance, posting a 2.87 ERA over five starts. He’s their ace, a fan favorite and now the face of the franchise. His bobblehead giveaway was a sellout at PNC Park with long lines to get into the stadium that stretched across the Roberto Clemente Bridge.
Reason for pessimism: Although the Pirates have put together a competitive pitching staff, they haven’t been able to do the same with their offense, which ranks 24th in runs scored, 28th in home runs and 25th in batting average.
St. Louis Cardinals
Reason for optimism: Victor Scott II is not only one of the fastest players in baseball, but also an elite defensive center fielder. He’s an impact player on the basepaths with eight steals in eight attempts this season. He plays with energy and enthusiasm. The 24-year-old is clearly the Cardinals’ long-term solution in center field.
Reason for pessimism: The members of the Cardinals’ young future core are off to slow starts: Alec Burleson is hitting .276 with no homers, Masyn Winn is batting .231, Jordan Walker is hitting .198 with only two homers and Lars Nootbaar is batting a dismal .239. That doesn’t bode well for their long-term future.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason for optimism: The Diamondbacks remain one of the best offensive and defensive teams in MLB, ranking in the top five in on-base percentage, runs scored, and overall team defense according to FanGraphs. Unlike last year, Corbin Carroll is off to a fast start, hitting .321 with nine home runs and 23 RBIs. New first baseman Josh Naylor has shown he can make up for the loss of Christian Walker in free agency; he’s hit .323 with four homers and 17 RBIs. Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who signed a contract extension earlier this year, looks like he could have an offensive breakout as he’s second on the team with 19 RBIs.
Reason for pessimism: The pitching staff has underachieved out of the gate, posting a team ERA of 4.28 that ranks 21st in the majors. The D-Backs’ top three starting pitchers — Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly — all have ERAs over 4.00. That being said, I think it’s just a slow start and the stats will normalize with a larger sample.
Colorado Rockies
Reason for optimism: The Rockies at least have long-term solutions in place at shortstop and in center field with Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, respectively. Both are Gold Glove-caliber fielders who can hit. Doyle has a strong power-speed combo (23 homers, 30 stolen bases last season) and is batting .300 thus far. Tovar, who led the NL in doubles and hit 26 long balls last year, is homerless this season amid a slow offensive start.
Reason for pessimism: The Rockies (4-20) have the worst record in MLB and already fired hitting coach Hensley Meulens, replacing him with former Rockies and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle. They rank 29th in team ERA and 30th in runs scored. They don’t have any recent history of making major trades or signing impact free agents and never seem to be willing to trade prospects to help improve their big-league team. They also hold onto their overrated prospects too long to utilize them as trade assets. The Rockies need to make drastic changes to their overall process to become competitive again.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason for optimism: They have the best and deepest starting rotation in the sport when healthy. They have three impact closers. The top three batters in their order are future Hall of Famers and their lineup is as deep as their rotation. They can withstand injuries better than any roster in the majors. They have a future Hall of Famer running the baseball operations department in Andrew Friedman and another one in the dugout in manager Dave Roberts. They have the highest payroll and future financial exposure of any team in the history of the sport.
Reason for pessimism: The Dodgers continue to deal with rotation injuries, big and small, from Blake Snell (shoulder) to Tony Gonsolin (back) to Clayton Kershaw (lower half) to Tyler Glasnow (cramps). However, because of their depth, they can take care of their pitchers and don’t have to push them; they are focused on setting themselves up for a healthy rotation come October.
San Diego Padres
Reason for optimism: The Padres entered Friday atop the stout NL West and with one of the best records in baseball. Superstar right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. has put himself in the early conversation for league MVP by batting .333 with eight homers and 17 RBIs. The best part of this team has been the bullpen, which leads the league in reliever ERA (1.76). It’s a pen filled with different looks. Closer Robert Suarez is 10-for-10 on save opportunities and has yet to allow a run.
Reason for pessimism: The Padres are still searching for an answer in left field with the speedy Brandon Lockridge (currently on the IL with a hamstring strain), veteran Jason Heyward, Oscar Gonzalez, Connor Joe and Tirso Ornelas all in the mix.
San Francisco Giants
Reason for optimism: San Francisco is top five in the majors in runs scored even though Willy Adames, a notorious slow starter, has batted .202 with only one homer early in his Giants career. The offense has been led by Jung Hoo Lee, who has posted a .981 OPS with three home runs, 16 RBIs and three stolen bases while playing plus defense in center field. The attitude and energy around the Giants’ clubhouse are the best they’ve been in years, and those intangibles are helping them win close games.
Reason for pessimism: Although the starting rotation has had its bright spots, led by ace Logan Webb and his 1.96 ERA through six starts, Robbie Ray’s resurgence and his newfound changeup, and the development of Landen Roupp, there have also been question marks including the performance of Justin Verlander (5.47 ERA) and Jordan Hicks (6.59 ERA). I still think Hicks would be better served pitching out of their bullpen.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Reason for optimism: Playing in his free-agent walk year, Cedric Mullins is off to the best start of his career, posting a .441 on-base percentage (211 OPS+) with six home runs and four steals while playing elite defense in center field.
Reason for pessimism: The Orioles’ starting rotation hasn’t quieted the concerns many had about it in the offseason and most of the team’s young stars are underachieving, which has some in the industry wondering if Brandon Hyde could be the first manager fired this season if they don’t turn things around soon. In terms of the rotation, Charlie Morton has looked his age (41), logging a 10.89 ERA through five starts, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have ERAs north of 6.00 and Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Elfin remain on the injured list. And, of course, last year’s ace, Corbin Burnes, is now pitching in Arizona. It doesn’t look like this rotation is good enough to get the Orioles to the postseason. In terms of the offense, most of us believe the O’s will figure it out and start producing soon, but it’s not a good sign that Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser are all hitting under .235. (Cowser has been on the IL all month with a fractured thumb.)
Boston Red Sox
Reason for optimism: Garrett Crochet, my preseason pick to win the AL Cy Young Award, is living up to the high expectations, posting a 1.95 ERA over his first six starts. The back end of the bullpen is also getting the job done as Aroldis Chapman and Justin Slaten have converted all seven of their save opportunities. Trevor Story is batting .300 with five home runs, 15 RBIs and six steals. Alex Bregman has demonstrated his leadership skills and provided consistent offensive production. Second baseman Kristian Campbell is in the early mix for AL rookie position player of the year. And top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are poised to help the big-league team at some point this season.
Reason for pessimism: Rafael Devers continues to struggle in his transition from third base to DH, batting .202 with only two homers, Triston Casas has been a nightmare at first base, hitting .171 with three homers and playing below-average defense. Although Ceddanne Rafaela continues to make Gold Glove-caliber plays in center field, he too has struggled offensively, posting a .616 OPS.
New York Yankees
Reason for optimism: The Yankees’ offense is doing just fine in life after Juan Soto thanks to significant contributions from Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. New York is a much-improved defensive team from last year, with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s move to second base, Aaron Judge’s move to right field and the insertions of Grisham and Bellinger in center and Oswaldo Cabrera at third base.
Reason for pessimism: The Yankees’ starting rotation has been riddled with injuries. Their ace, Gerrit Cole, is out for the season after Tommy John surgery. Luis Gil will miss the first three months with a lat injury and Marcus Storman is on the IL with knee inflammation. Max Fried has lived up to his contract, going 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA, but Carlos Rodón has been inconsistent and Carlos Carrasco has been bad. Will Warren looks more like a back-of-the-rotation starter than a difference-maker, and Clarke Schmidt has had mixed results since coming off the IL last week. In terms of the bullpen, closer Devin Williams has converted all four of his save opportunities but has a 7.88 ERA. He should be fine, though, once he finds his groove. However, the Yankees will probably go only as far as their starting pitching can take them.
Tampa Bay Rays
Reason for optimism: The Rays’ young duo on the infield corners is showing that they are an integral part of the club’s future. Rookie third baseman Junior Caminero is living up to the lofty expectations with five home runs and 11 RBIs while first baseman Jonathan Aranda is breaking out, hitting .338/.443/.646 with four homers and 14 RBIs.
Reason for pessimism: Tampa Bay’s starting rotation, which was expected to be a strength for this team, is off to a slow start and the move from Tropicana Field to George M. Steinbrenner Field has not helped the staff. Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen have been their best starters so far, but Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley and Zack Littell have underperformed.
Toronto Blue Jays
Reason for optimism: The Blue Jays were able to extend the face of their franchise, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., on a $500 million contract and combined with their offseason signing of Anthony Santander and impending free agent Bo Bichette, now have a trio of hitters opponents can’t pitch around. Toronto is also trying to re-sign Bichette, who is off to a solid start, hitting .296. There’s optimism about the top of their rotation as Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Bowden Francis have pitched well. Out of the bullpen, free-agent signee Jeff Hoffman has converted all five of his save opportunities and has a 1.46 ERA.
Reason for pessimism: The Blue Jays were projected to be the top defensive team in MLB by FanGraphs, but for whatever reason, that hasn’t been the case early in the season. In fact, the Jays rank 16th in overall defense, 22nd in runs above average (measuring range) and 24th in outs above average (measuring range). I still think they have the potential to be a strong defense, but it hasn’t looked good in April.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Reason for optimism: Their young starting rotation has shown some signs of promise. Righty Shane Smith has posted a 2.30 ERA over his first five major-league starts, allowing just 17 hits in 27 1/3 innings. In the minors, lefties Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz are off to solid starts at Double A. Smith has 25 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings while Schultz is showing a plus-plus fastball, but doesn’t have the results to show for it (4.97 ERA, 2.132 WHIP).
Reason for pessimism: Chicago’s best trade chip, Luis Robert Jr., is off to a poor start, slashing .154/.282/.262 with only three extra base hits over 80 plate appearances. Teams are just not pitching to him and you can see his frustration. In the offseason, the White Sox were looking for two top-10-type prospects in return for Robert, and now they can’t even get one. They had hoped the 27-year-old would bounce back and be the 38-homer, 20-stolen base player he was in 2023, but that hasn’t been the case. The White Sox don’t have a lot to trade at the deadline to boost their prospect pool. If Robert doesn’t turn it around fast, it’s going to be tough for them to accomplish their trade goals in-season.
Cleveland Guardians
Reason for optimism: The Guardians may have found their next star player and power bat in Kyle Manzardo, who has already belted seven homers and driven in 17 runs, which is much-needed production after they traded Josh Naylor to Arizona in the offseason. His presence in the lineup has provided important protection for José Ramírez, who has a 138 OPS+ early on.
Reason for pessimism: The Guardians’ starting rotation hasn’t improved as much as they’d like. Their ace, Tanner Bibee, has a 5.19 ERA in five starts since signing a five-year extension. Offseason acquisition Luis Ortiz has a 5.96 ERA in five starts. Triston McKenzie, their former top pitching prospect, was designated for assignment and placed on waivers after logging an 11.12 ERA. Their bullpen, which last year was the best unit in baseball, has already blown three saves, including two by Emmanuel Clase, who one season after posting an 0.61 ERA has a 7.84 mark and is dealing with shoulder discomfort, according to manager Stephen Vogt.
Detroit Tigers
Reason for optimism: The Tigers are the only team with four starting pitchers who have pitched at least 20 innings and posted ERAs under 2.90, led by last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal; my preseason pick for AL Rookie of the Year, Jackson Jobe; veteran Jack Flaherty; and former first-round pick Casey Mize. Detroit has also found its new closer in former Yankee Tommy Kahnle, who has converted four of five save opportunities and tallied a 0.96 ERA over nine appearances.
Reason for pessimism: The lack of lineup depth is glaring, and the Tigers will go only as far as their offense will take them. The two bright spots have been first baseman Spencer Torkelson, who leads the team in home runs (seven) and RBIs (21), and right fielder Kerry Carpenter, who has five homers and 11 RBIs. All-Star outfielder Riley Greene is off to a slow start but will turn things around. However, the Tigers just don’t get enough offense from the bottom half of their lineup and especially the left side of the infield. They have work to do between now and the trade deadline to fix the offense if they hope to prevail in the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals
Reason for optimism: Bobby Witt Jr. is off to a slow start but still does amazing things in every game and has slashed .308/.381/.473 despite hitting only two homers. A strong rotation (Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic) along with a much-improved bullpen led by free-agent signee Carlos Estévez (five saves in seven opportunities, 3.27 ERA) and a strong set-up group (Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Steven Cruz, Angel Zerpa) should keep them in contention all season long.
Reason for pessimism: The offense just hasn’t been there around Witt. The Royals’ next two best hitters, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, are hitting under .200 and new leadoff hitter Jonathan India hasn’t gotten on base enough (.298 on-base percentage). If those three don’t hit, this team is going nowhere. Maikel Garcia has a .360 OBP and 10 RBIs. However, Hunter Renfroe (.135 batting average), Kyle Isbel (.217) and Michael Massey (.190) have struggled. MJ Melendez hit .085 before being demoted to Triple A.
Minnesota Twins
Reason for optimism: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are healthy and playing every day, though Correa has struggled at the plate. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are on the IL with hamstring strains, with Lewis starting a rehab assignment Friday. If the Twins can get the latter two back and then keep all four healthy, they could turn things around by the All-Star break. Starter Joe Ryan has been solid after missing the end of last season with a shoulder injury and Pablo López (hamstring strain) should return from the IL soon. Jhoan Duran has been strong in the back end of their bullpen, posting a 1.74 ERA and averaging more than 100 mph on his four-seamer. Prospect Luke Keaschall has provided a spark since being called up and tied a major-league record with five steals in his first five games.
Reason for pessimism: Ownership is still trying to sell the team, which will continue to hang over the organization until there’s a resolution. The back of the rotation has not looked good with inflated early ERAs for Bailey Ober (5.04), Chris Paddack (6.45) and Simeon Woods Richardson (4.74). Some of their young hitters such as Brooks Lee, Edouard Julian and Trevor Larnach haven’t produced enough early on. Jose Miranda hit .167 and was demoted to Triple A after making a bad base-running blunder. Bottom line: This looks like a fourth-place team that’s just waiting for one of its oft-injured star players to get hurt again.
AL West
Athletics
Reason for optimism: Several of the A’s young hitters are breaking out at the same time. First baseman/left fielder Tyler Soderstrom has a majors-leading nine homers with 22 RBIs and a .959 OPS. Shortstop Jacob Wilson has hit .337 with only one walk and four strikeouts in 89 at-bats. Right fielder Lawrence Butler has reached base at a .365 clip, slugger Brent Rooker has seven homers and catcher Shea Langeliers has five bombs. Nick Kurtz, the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft and one of the best power prospects in the sport, was just called up to the majors. These are fun times in West Sacramento for this bunch of bats. Meanwhile, Mason Miller, the best closer in the sport, has converted all seven of his save opportunities and has yet to allow a run in eight appearances.
Reason for pessimism: The A’s pitching staff ranks 26th in team ERA, 22nd in strikeouts, 28th in WHIP and 28th in batting average against. They just don’t have the pitching depth to be a legitimate contending team. They’ve made great progress with their lineup but still have a long way to go with their staff.
Houston Astros
Reason for optimism: Hunter Brown has developed into the staff ace, moving ahead of Framber Valdez. Brown has loudly announced his presence this season, going 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA over his first five starts. The 26-year-old righty is pitching ahead, throwing strikes and dominating with pinpoint command and control. He ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value and fastball run value, the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate and the 91st percentile in average exit velocity. Batters are hitting just .057 against his four-seam fastball, .133 against his changeup, .192 against his sinker and .200 against his knuckle curveball.
Reason for pessimism: This offense clearly misses third baseman Alex Bregman, who departed to Boston in free agency, and right fielder Kyle Tucker, who was traded to the Cubs after Houston was unable to sign him to a long-term contract. Isaac Paredes (four home runs) is the only Astros player with more than three homers. Apart from Jose Altuve, Jake Meyers and Jeremy Peña, everyone else in their starting lineup is hitting below .235.
Los Angeles Angels
Reason for optimism: Mike Trout is healthy and his move to right field has been seamless; he leads the team with eight home runs and 16 RBIs but is hitting just .169. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe continues to develop and has hit five homers to start the season. Second baseman Kyren Paris has been a big surprise with a .348 on-base percentage, five homers and five steals. The top of the rotation has been solid as Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson and José Soriano have combined for an ERA around 3.00. Closer Kenley Jansen has converted all five of his save opportunities and has pitched seven scoreless innings.
Reason for pessimism: The back of the rotation leaves a little to be desired; Kyle Hendricks is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and Jack Kochanowicz is 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA. The Angels are not getting consistent offensive impact from some of their best young players including first baseman Nolan Schanuel, shortstop Zach Neto and outfielder Jo Adell. In addition, some of their offseason veteran signings, such as infielders Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada and catcher Travis d’Arnaud, have not produced and might never pan out.
Seattle Mariners
Reason for optimism: The Mariners still have one of the best starting rotations in baseball with Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller, and George Kirby is working his way back after going on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Closer Andrés Muñoz has converted all eight of his save opportunities and hasn’t allowed a run in 12 appearances. As far as the offense, catcher Cal Raleigh is tied for the league lead in home runs with nine, outfielder Randy Arozarena has four homers and seven steals, the versatile Dylan Moore (five homers, five steals) was just named AL Player of the Week, and a healthy Jorge Polanco is batting .339.
Reason for pessimism: The Mariners still don’t have enough offense to win the AL West. They have never addressed the batter’s eye issue at T-Mobile Park, have not moved in the left-field fences enough and haven’t figured out how to fix Julio Rodríguez’s slow starts every year. They don’t get enough offense from the infield corners and have done little to replace the injured Victor Robles in their lineup. The Mariners have to win with homers and steals, but until they tap their farm system to trade for two more legitimate hitters to stabilize this offense, they’re not going to have the necessary firepower during this window of elite starting pitching and closing.
Texas Rangers
Reason for optimism: Texas’ pitching staff ranks sixth in MLB in team ERA and seventh in batting average against. The starting rotation, led by Nathan Eovaldi (2.64 ERA in five starts), has been brilliant. The Rangers have two Comeback Player of the Year candidates in their rotation: Jacob deGrom (3.32 ERA in four starts) and Tyler Mahle (3-0, 0.68 ERA.) Rookie Jack Leiter looked great in his first two starts (2-0, 0.90 ERA) before going on the IL with a blister. Their bullpen has been better than expected with closer Luke Jackson converting all seven of his save opportunities and Robert Garcia and Chris Martin posting ERAs under 3.00.
Reason for pessimism: I expected the Rangers to have a top-three offense in the AL this season as I picked them to win the pennant. However, their bats haven’t awakened yet. The Rangers rank 13th in the AL in runs scored, ahead of only the White Sox and Royals. They are 28th in the majors in on-base percentage and 25th in OPS. Marcus Semien is batting .153 with three extra-base hits, Joc Pederson is somehow batting .068 with two extra-base hits, Adolis García is hitting .217, Jake Burger is hitting .178 with three dingers. This lineup is too good to be this bad and I think it’s just a matter of time before their stats significantly improve. On the bright side, it’s amazing the Rangers are in first place with their offense underachieving to this degree.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Andy Lyons, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
